How Do We Calculate Global Temps. Anyway?

31/08/2020

Solar Heat beaming down on Earth's surface blanketed by a thick atmosphere of air and water that "insulates" us from the blackness above. How do we warm up? Cool down? Does the greenhouse gas effect really exist or are Earth's thermodynamics explained by known Science?

Consider Heat to be Flowing Up.
Consider Heat to be Flowing Up.
Remember - Earth's Avg. Flux is only Between 200 and 400 watts / sq. meter
Remember - Earth's Avg. Flux is only Between 200 and 400 watts / sq. meter


1. Upper Layers of Atmosphere (Thermosphere, Mesosphere) - all "normal spectrum" solar energy  penetrates through with minescule loss of irradiance (1361 watts / m^2) until it encounters the top of the Stratosphere. No warming effect exerted on Thermosphere and Mesosphere except by extreme energy wavelengths such as Xray, gamma, etc. on an extremely thin gaseous outer atmosphere.

Mesosphere loses the Stratospheric heat that rises to the boundary layer after absorption of UV energy in the Stratosphere ozone zone. At its minimum temperatures rises again as very high energy waves interact with thinly spaced molecules that remain. Remember that these areas may show temperature but they are very thin in substance as well as air is extremely diluted if present at all. 

The real story of Earth's heating and cooling begins with the Stratosphere and Troposphere.

2. How does energy strike the Earth - "Direct Line" solar energy @ 1361 watts / m^2 intensity must be considered as  spread out over the area of a sphere instead of as energy hitting a flat disc, thereby dissipating itself in a manner that "effective" solar energy beams down on the stratosphere with an actual intensity of  (1361 / 4) or 340 watts / m^2. 

The Sun doesn't Beam onto a Flat Surface
The Sun doesn't Beam onto a Flat Surface

3. Top of Stratosphere is penetrated by "normal spectrum / effective" solar rays - entry point can now be calculated using the Stephan Boltzman equation as having a  blackbody temperature of 288 K (using 340 watts / m^2).  As the rays move through the Stratosphere the air warms due to absorption of energy by aerosols, dust particles, ozone absorption of high energy UV, etc. 

4. This lessening of incoming solar irradiance is generally called "Albedo" - The Stratosphere and Troposphere reflects (dust, aerosols, clouds) or absorbs heat energy (ozone, water) and essentially "sends back" 100 watts / m^2 of incoming energy to outer space. The net radiation after passing through the Stratosphere and Troposphere now becomes 242 watts / m^2 after all this filtering action. This is what beams down on the actual Earth's surface. 

5. The Stratosphere shows warming of its contents due to absorption of energy and its temperature rises until it meets the Mesosphere (see 1. above). More importantly, the Troposphere warms up as we move from high elevations (15 km) in the atmosphere downwards to the Earth's surface. 

6. The major force warming the Troposphere from top to bottom is not radiant heat but rather a natural phenomenon called "adiabatic heating".  This warming of the Troposphere is also the area where the scientific and political dispute rages over how the Troposphere gets heated in the first place and why it "stays warm" even overnight when the Earth cools as it faces the blackness of icy cold space. 


7. "Adiabatic" compression of air raises its temperature - low pressure thin air at the top of the Troposphere (ie. 15 km) contains a certain density of molecules that "warm" it by kinetic motion and intramolecular collision of air molecules. The table above sets its temperature calculated at about 217 K with very low pressure (.000012 atm)  As this very thin air is compressed to an eventual surface pressure at sea level of 1 atm it increases in density. This means that more molecules occupy a given volume of gas and this means there are more collisions between them that increases its kinetic energy. This then logically means temperature of the lower elevation higher density air is higher than the lower density air found at the top of the troposphere. 

The table above and the included calculator both show that this temperature at 1 atmosphere pressure, just above the surface of the Earth equal to 288K. This means we have "gained" 30 degrees Kelvin due to adiabatic compression, not due to some weird form of greenhouse gas insulation. 

Backcheck - Using this calculator a value of 1.225 km / m^2 will be obtained using 1 atm. as pressure, "dry" as air type, and 288 K as the temperature of the gas. Literature indicates that the value of 1.225 km. / m^2 is correct. 


-  and, ta da!! - we have Earth's baseline temperature 288 K or 15 C ...

 This is considered the Earth's true surface temperature. It is set by the natural forces of physics, NOT by an artificial greenhouse effect caused by a miniscule molecule found in our atmosphere's blend of gasses as is briefly explained in the following section:

 IPCC description of Troposphere temperature. - This is the temperature of the thin air at the top of the Troposphere. The IPCC says that the radiant energy continues through the Troposphere until it strikes the Earth, radiating it with an intensity of 240 watts / m^2 and giving it a baseline temperature of 258 K. or - 15C.

IPCC seems to ignore or grossly underestimate the adiabatic warming effect of air (see below) caused by compression of air molecules that occurs moving from low pressure high elevations to high pressure (1 atm.) pressure seen at sea level.

Instead they then say the Earth cannot cool back down to -15 C at night because of the greenhouse effect trapping heat and warming the air. They further state that the net surface temperature at sea level is actually 288 K due to greenhouse warming and furthermore this heat trapping and temperature is rising over time.

I REJECT THIS HYPOTHESIS AS BEING UNWORKABLE ON SO MANY LEVELS.


NOW CONSIDER THE OPPOSITE - HOW DO WE COOL OFF?

 Earth's actual temperature - Overheating and Cooling - 288 K is actually 15 degrees Celsius ( 59 degrees Fahrenheit). We know that a day's exposure to Sun will warm the actual Earth's surface beyond the natural air temperature due to absorption of Sun's heat by the solid and liquid components of the Earth itself. In order to stay in balance, this heat must be dispersed constantly, including a period of direct radiation overnight while the Earth faces the dark side of outer space.  Cooling is done by a variety of mechanisms, of which water evaporation and cloud formation are paramount. 

If the Earth can rid itself of the day's heat by the time its next sunrise occurs, then it stays in balance with its input of heat during the day when it is exposed to the Sun's rays. If it cannot then it will warm up gradually. IPCC claims the presence of 400 ppm carbon dioxide prevents this form happening. 

Carbon dioxide does NOT prevent the Earth from ridding itself of any "excess" heat it absorbs during the day. Earth cools through many mechanisms, particularly water and carbon dioxide is just another air molecule, not a magic ingredient that "upsets the apple cart". 

- furthermore, they lie....

IPCC ALTERATION OF DATA ACTUALLY MAKES THINGS LOOK WORSE THAN THEY REALLY ARE.


Chart 1 - Shows the effect of the Sun on the Earth, as determined by the mechanism described above:

Nothing seems amiss here. It shows carbon dioxide increasing from 280 to 400 ppm and says this has induced a situation of radiative forcing equivalent to 2 watts / square meter.

Chart 2 - next chart in the article translates this into temperature caused by radiative forcing, as per the IPCC predictions for our near future.

This chart says that when we reach the 400 ppm mark (we already have) the temperature will warm (only because of C02, not anything else) by 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

This is equal to . 5 to .75 degrees C / (watt / sq meter) depending on which curve you are reading in chart 2.

So, let's do the math using the Stephan-Boltzman calculator listed above (using pure Black Body as model).

Earth at an irradiance of 242 watts / sq. meter will have a temperature of :                   -17.556 C  

Earth at an irradiance of 244 watts / sq. meter will have a temperature of :                   -17.030 C

Difference in temperature due to 2 watts / sq. meter increase:                                         + .526 degrees Celsius

Rise in degrees Celsius per (watt / sq. meter) :   =                    + .525 deg. C / 2 =                             +. 2625 degrees Celsius.

IT APPEARS THAT IPCC HAVE OVERESTIMATED THE INFLUENCE OF CARBON DIOXIDE BY 2 TO 3 X THE CALCULATED VALUES BY THE RECOGNIZED EQUATION FOR DETERMINING THESE THINGS. THAT'S STRANGE...

USING OUR CALCULATED NUMBER, A RISE OF 2 WATTS / SQ. METER OVER A RISE OF C02 FROM 280 PPM TO A LEVEL TODAY OF 400 PPM WOULD HAVE RAISED THE EARTH'S TEMPERATURE BY AROUND .5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS NUMBER IS SLOWLY BEING PROVED OUT AND IPCC'S PREDICTIONS ARE SLOWLY BEING ALTERED DOWN. POOR SCIENCE MANIPULATED AT ITS BEST!

ALSO, CONSIDER HENRY'S LAW - WHICH STATES THAT C02 RISES BECAUSE OF TEMPERATURE RISE, NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND. OCEANS OUTGAS AS THE PLANET WARMS AND RELEASE C02.

Henry's Law  FROM STALLINGA.

The correlation between temperature and [CO2] is readily explained by another phenomenon, called Henry's Law: The capacity of liquids to hold gases in solu- tion is depending on temperature. When oceans heat up, the capacity decreases and the oceans thus release CO2 (and other gases) into the atmosphere. When we quantitatively analyze this phenomenon, we see that it perfectly fits the ob- servations, without the need of any feedback [1].