ITPS - "It's the Planets Stupid" - Could Our Planets Affect our Sun? ...
PREMISE - The reason the energy output of the Sun is never constant is because it is surrounded by a number of major planets which are constantly moving around it in orbits that take different amounts of time to complete. Even though they are held in place by the Sun's gravitational pull each planet also pulls back against the Sun with varying degrees of strength. Depending on their alignment with each other the planets can cause the Sun to boil with outpouring energy (seen as sunspots) or sit quietly in some state of balanced pull with little activity in terms of violent eruptions or output of irradiance.
Major Planets - distance from Sun - 1 au = 150000 km.
The major planets affecting the Sun (330000 earths) are Jupiter (1300 earths), Saturn (764 earths) and also the Earth itself. Ignoring the effect of the others (you'd need a Cray computer to follow their orbital paths all simultaneously), could we expect their relative orbits / positions to affect the Sun and change the conditions that Earth experiences each year as it passes through its repeating one year long circle? To try to answer this question in a VERY simplistic way. We are going to calculate their relative orbital positions each time the Earth goes around once (ie. per year); see how this might affect the pattern of pull against the Sun's surface and then look to see if Earth "sees" these patterns in terms of its observed climates recorded through time.
Suppose our starting point is a positioning whereby Earth, Jupiter and Saturn are in a straight line. You would expect this position to create maximum havoc on the Sun as each planet's gravitational pull would be in the same direction. From this point however, things become more complex.
- Earth - circles the Sun once per year, and so each year it will "pass" both Jupiter and Saturn.
- Jupiter - circles the Sun once every 11.9 years, pulling strongly on the Sun as it moves as it is huge.
- Saturn - circles the Sun every 29.4 years, providing an additional pull, but not in concert with Jupiter.
So, at starting point we would expect maximum pull on the Sun in one direction because all these major planets are aligned in a straight line.
SUN.....EARTH.....JUPITER.....SATURN (0 years)
We also calculate that Jupiter must make 5 revolutions and Saturn must make 2 revolutions before they ever manage to get back to this same "maximum pull" straight line position again (it's logical - do the math). This means that when Saturn first gets back to its starting point on revolution 1, Jupiter will be 2.5 revolutions into its cycle - or 180 degrees away from Saturn pulling in the opposite direction. We'd expect this alignment to be more balanced and create minimum havoc on the Sun.
JUPITER.....SUN.....EARTH.........SATURN (30 years) (Saturn 1 revolution, Jupiter 2.5 revolutions)
It will take another 30 years for Saturn to find its way back to the zero point during which time Jupiter will travel 2.5 revolutions and once again line up with the other planets.
SUN.....EARTH....JUPITER.........SATURN (60 years) (Saturn 2 revolutions, Jupiter 5 revolutions)
So we have three cycles - 12 years for massive Jupiter to circle the sun and get back to zero. - 30 years for Jupiter and Saturn to be opposite each other and induce counter pulls on the Sun - and 60 years for Jupiter and Saturn to line up again and create maximum pull on the Sun in one direction. And the Earth passing through these combinations every year (and everything in between). A myriad of potential combinations exerted on the Sun with two major pulls falling 30 years apart (one high and one low).
Now if you really want to drive yourself crazy, try aligning the planets versus year in the following simulator. You can see the patterns but also understand quickly just how complex the whole system is and the massive computing power that would be required to make sense of it:
WHAT ELSE IS IN PLAY? - The Sun itself is changing beyond the influence of the planets. We have:
1. Alignment of planets - especially Jupiter and Saturn, to create hot and cold periods generally 30 years apart, but having a greater effect over thousands of years as the Sun revolves around its centre and planets create patterns that push and pull on its mass.
2. Sun Polarity - The magnetic field "flips" regularly. It revolves through 360 degrees over every 22 years from north to south and back to north again due to internal shifts in the Sun's core.
3. Sun Oscillations - Zharakova has shown that the magnetic flux of the Sun generated from its core moves very predictably during these polarity cycles in ways that create sun spots (aka. energy highs and lows) and in patterns that grow from major minimums to new major minimums over 350 year cycles. These can be related to major Earth events such as the Maunder minimum.
How would this affect conditions on little Earth?
DON'T EXPECT AN ANSWER TO THIS QUESTION FROM GLOBAL AUTHORITIES OR POLITICIANS.
Well, at least the IPCC has been told. The button below gives extracts of submissions to the IPCC detailing work that has been done showing the intimate relationship between our Sun and the remarkable coincidence that many of the things we claim are due to global warming follow a 60 year cycle similar to the orientation of the planets around the Sun. These submissions have been ignored or discounted by the "experts".
But the document is revealing and leads to a wealth of information that supports its claims that these concerns are "natural" and cannot be stopped or altered by man. They are cycles that come and go whether we like it or not. Our efforts to reverse or alter them by moving away from a carbon based society to a "clean green" will have no effect. They will continue. And we'd better get ready because it's going to get cold, not hot.
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) aka. Ocean Temperature Deviation from Norm.
PREMISE - We'e on a down cycle, heading towards a 60 year low in world mean temperature. These periods have been observed before as shown on the graph above, occurring in 1970, 1910, 1850 and before. The long range 60 year cycle is composed of shorter range 11 year cycles are we have one more 11 year cycle to go before we reach the deep minimum of the next 60 year cold event. This is not something that has not happened before. Two references are given that show climate variability and hot / cold cycles are a common feature of our Earth and have been happening forever. Also, the 11 year cycle is discussed in more detail in another blog but for now expect the near future to play out as a warming for 5.5 years, then cooling for 5.5 years and then ?...
Please note: these images and the discussions surrounding them are easily found on Google. I'm not even going to attempt to make a bibliography because this isn't a scientific paper, it's an opinion piece. If you doubt me go search them out. The exercise is quite revealing.