Ocean Buffer Sets C02 Concentrations.

21/12/2020

The World is saying that fossil fuel based Carbon Dioxide emissions are causing global warming.  Or are they? Is the temperature increasing because Carbon Dioxide is increasing or is it the opposite? Paradigm breaker - Is Carbon Dioxide increasing because temperature is rising? Could something else be warming the Earth (maybe the Sun)?  Why do we care? Well, consider Henry's Law as described so well by Stallinga.

 HERE'S THE CONNUNDRUM

At the Muana Loa testing station an analysis was performed of the averaged Temperature rise over several decades (ie. Time) versus the measured concentrations of Carbon Dioxide over the same period. THEY BOTH GO UP! OK, but do the two values correlate? 

Since both values (temperature and carbon dioxide) went up when compared to the same variable (time) they will also have to have a correlation to each other. The question is therefore, how well do they correlate with one another, an indication of whether one variable might actually be causing the other to react to its changes by changing itself also.

The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide was determined to be 10.2 mK / ppm of carbon dioxide. A better way to read this is that 100 ppm of C02 "causes" a rise in temperature of 1.02 K over the time frame measured. OR, did a rise in temperature of 1.02 K "cause" a rise in C02 of 100 ppm. OR, is it just coincidence.

SCENARIO #1 - CO2 CAUSED TEMPERATURE TO RISE - THE "GREENHOUSE EFFECT."

1. Greenhouse data - In an earlier work, https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=84577  Stallinga analyzed the millenial based correlation of temperature and C02 levels and came to the conclusion that the greenhouse effect can only explain about .5 K of temperature rise for a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere from 350 ppm to 700 ppm; therefore they calculated the climate sensitivity of carbon dioxide is .5 K / 350 ppm = 1.4 mK / ppm.  (also seen as .14 K / 100 ppm). 

N.B. - THE GOLD STANDARD FOR GREENHOUSE EFFECT WAS FOUND TO BE .14 K / 100 PPM OF CO2.

2. Modern Data (Moana Koa) - A 100 ppm rise in C02 over 60 years coincided with a rise in temperature of 1.02 degrees Kelvin.  This is 7.5 X higher than the standard dictated for the Greenhouse effect to be happening.

3. Ice Core Data - indicates a rise in temperature of 9.5 K / 100 ppm rise of C02,  68 times higher than  the standard set for Greenhouse Gas warming and 9.3 times higher than the Modern data seen around Moana Koa. 

4. Henry's law - also calculates a rise in temperature of 10 K / 100 ppm of C02, 71 times higher than the standard set for Greenhouse Gas warming in and also 10 times higher than the Modern data seen around Muana Koa. 

5. Henry's law - is remarkably close to the historical data as seen in the Ice Core Data. It appears to predict how much C02 would be in the atmosphere along with a rise in temperature of 10 K over the millenia it was measured. 

6. Greenhouse Effect - as seen in the Modern Data is far too weak to have caused the temperature rise seen from analysis of the Ice Core Data. It must be concluded that it did NOT CAUSE TEMPERATURE RISE AT ALL in the Modern study. 

VARIOUS CORRELATIONS FROM LITERATURE AND ANALYSIS.
VARIOUS CORRELATIONS FROM LITERATURE AND ANALYSIS.

SCENARIO #2 -RISING OCEAN TEMPERATURES CAUSES A RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE

Could an increasing temperature (OF THE OCEAN, NOT OF THE AIR) cause C02 to increase in the atmosphere, presumably with a different correlation than that required to explain global warming by the Greenhouse Effect? ie. If we can't explain atmospheric temperature rise by rise in atmospheric C02, can we explain the atmospheric rise of C02 in the atmosphere by analyzing the temperature of the ocean itself? 

The correlation between ocean temperature and [CO2] is readily explained in the same earlier study https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=84577 by Stallinga using Henry's Law. 

"The capacity of liquids to hold gases in solution is dependent on temperature. When oceans heat up, the capacity decreases and the oceans thus release CO2 (and other gases) into the atmosphere. When we quantitatively analyze this phenomenon, we see that it perfectly fits the observations, without the need of any feedback.  They concluded that the effect of anthropogenic CO2 on the climate is negligible and the effect of the ocean temperature on atmospheric [CO2] is exactly, both in sign and magnitude, equal to that as expected on basis of Henry's Law."

ie. CONCLUSION - Henry's Law dictates how much C02 resides in our Atmosphere through uptake or outgassing of the Oceans in relation to its temperature as they are in equilibrium. Any C02 increases (or decreases) in the atmosphere do NOT correlate with the magnitude temperature rise and presumably play no part in causing that same rise in temperature through any theoretical phenomenon such as the IPCC created Greenhouse Effect. 

SCENARIO #3 - THE OCEAN IS A "BUFFER" AND THEREBY CONTROLS ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide comes from many sources the most well known being burning organic matter (eg. forest fires) and man made anthropogenic burning of fossil fuels. The C02 being created by these processes is also being diminished through processes such as photosynthesis and more importantly through "dissolving" into the ocean water itself.

The ocean sets the "final" concentration of carbon dioxide by acting as a buffer. It doesn't merely absorb Carbon dioxide, nor does it merely give off Carbon dioxide. IT DOES BOTH! As a buffer, dependent on its temperature, the Ocean absorbs C02 as its waters get cooler and conversely outgasses C02 as its waters get warmer (temperature driven by the Sun). It is in equilibrium with atmospheric C02 and the concentration of C02 in the air above the ocean is dictated by Henry's Law calculated at the existing water temperature when measured. 

We went up 100 ppm of C02 in Modern Data over a 60 year period around Moana Koa. This increase in C02 came out of the ocean waters in sufficient quantity to end up with a value of 415 ppm, 100 ppm higher than the value seen 60 years earlier when the ocean also was colder. It buffered ALL C02 to a new value based on its new water temperature.